In just five years, public schools lost more than 1.2 million students, and alternative schooling isn’t the only reason enrollment is declining.
Between fall 2019 and fall 2023, public school enrollment fell from 50.8 million to 49.5 million, according to a new analysis from FutureEd, an independent think tank at Georgetown University’s McCourt School of Public Policy.
The pandemic exacerbated already existing declines. Between fall 2019 and 2020 alone, public schools lost more than 1.4 million students to home schooling and private schools, many of which returned to in-person learning sooner than public schools.
Despite hopes that families and their children would return, many did not. By fall 2022, an estimated 3.4% of all students were homeschooled, compared to 2.8% in fall 2019. As for private school enrollment, it increased by 22% in 2021 compared to pre-pandemic levels.
FutureEd’s Tara Moon writes that school choice isn’t the primary driver of declining public school enrollment. Moon also cites steadily falling birth rates, as well as immigration crackdowns and domestic migration, which are also shaping enrollment patterns.
“High housing costs and taxes are prompting families to leave urban areas and high-cost states like California,” Moon writes. “As a result, some regions are seeing much steeper enrollment losses than others, while others are growing.”
Some of the hardest-hit states include high-cost areas such as California (-5.2% change in enrollment), Oregon (-6.2%) and Hawaii (-6.5%).
Certain school districts also saw steeper declines. California’s Los Angeles Unified School District, for example, where at least 75% of students qualify for free or reduced-price lunch, lost an average of 15% of its enrollment.
The consequences
Enrollment declines complicate the financial landscape in a system that, to operate at scale, relies on serving a certain number of students, Moon notes.
“In most states, public school funding is directly tied to enrollment,” Moon writes. “When students leave, or are never enrolled, schools lose per-pupil state dollars, which typically account for around 45% of their budgets.”
Moving forward, district leaders will have to address this new reality, which doesn’t always mean closing schools, Moon adds. However, leaders must not ignore the inefficiencies of under-enrolled buildings.
A 2024 briefing from Georgetown University’s Marguerite Roza, director of the Edunomics Lab, outlines strategies for superintendents looking for alternatives to closing underenrolled schools.
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