Higher education is one of our core verticals. For the past 20 years, we have been experts in everything from traditional degrees to trade programs and community colleges across the U.S. In Texas, we’re noticing a trend that many four-year degree colleges are getting more multicultural students and fewer non-Hispanic White students. We did some digging to see if what we were seeing was real.
It is.
According to the The CB DataBridge, published by the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, enrollment by Hispanic/Latino students and Asian students has been on the rise, while enrollment by non-Hispanic White students has been declining. African American/Black student enrollment is flat. In 2023, Hispanic/Latino students represented 41% of higher education enrollees — a solid 14% higher than non-Hispanic White students. Women also have higher college enrollment than men in Texas.
We recognized this trend well before the COVID-19 pandemic hit. However, post-pandemic, it seems that Hispanic/Latino, Asian, and female students all believe the cost of higher education is worth the debt and delay in financial gain, including many of whom are the first in the family to attend college, especially among Hispanic/Latinos. For non-Hispanic White students, there is a group that believes the money just isn’t worth it. According to Business Insider, approximately 46% of all Gen Zers don’t think college is worth the cost. Not just because of the expense of the student loan debt, but this seems to be exacerbated by both forgoing immediate earnings in the time it takes to complete a degree and the fear of certain types of work becoming automated in the future.
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Yet, experts at Texas Higher Ed are projecting that by 2030, at least 62% of jobs in Texas will require some postsecondary education. As the Texas economy heats up in sectors like health care, IT, construction and energy, the lure of trade jobs that don’t require such expensive postsecondary education seems to be beckoning Gen Zers, especially in this non-Hispanic White Gen Z cohort. With the red-hot labor market, this makes sense.
A study by Midwest Technical Institutes calculates that trade school costs about one-third of what a four-year degree costs.
But when we look at lifetime earnings, those with bachelor’s degrees have projected lifetime earnings of $2.8 million versus $1.6 million for just a high school diploma. The opportunity area, and perhaps what those foregoing traditional colleges have discovered, is the high-paying jobs in IT, construction, and healthcare that don’t require four-year degrees. Perhaps it’s easier for the non-Hispanic White Gen Z cohort to say “no” to a four-year degree? On the other side of this, the first-in-family cohorts are drawn to building generational wealth, something their parents were unable to do given their personal educational attainment or economic situation.
It’s clear we’re seeing big state colleges like the University of Texas and Texas A&M get in on this alternative education action. UT has the Extended Campus, which, according to UT System President Jay Hartzell, will be the enrollment driver of the future for UT across many core areas of study as well as lifetime learning and employer training programs. Texas A&M is capitalizing on its engineering and technical expertise by building the Rio Grande Valley Advanced Manufacturing Hub. This Hub is part of the Port of Brownsville which has seen massive increases in cargo movement over the past decade and is bringing new industries to the region like liquified natural gas.
There is no doubt that four-year degree colleges will have to shrink, especially state-owned institutions that can no longer offer DEI programs and race-based scholarships. Here in Texas that’s particularly important as we’ve become majority minority in the under 24-year-old age group. That’s true even if they can prove the lifetime value of a four-year degree because, as the numbers show, Gen Z is a small generation. We’re entering a new phase in higher education. Either the costs must come down at traditional colleges, or the students will go elsewhere for a lot less money, including online!
