By 2031, we’ll see the number of good jobs grow by 15.2 million, and 85% of them will require some postsecondary education. A college degree may not be the only postsecondary option for high school graduates, but it may be preferred among those who value earnings potential.
A “good job” pays at least $43,000, with a median of $74,000 for workers between the ages of 25 and 44, according to the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce in a new report, The Future of Good Jobs: Projections Through 2031. The overall median earnings for those ages 25-64 who hold a good job are $82,000.
The researchers provide forecasts of the job market—specifically the share and number of good jobs—for workers ages 25-64 who have obtained one of three educational milestones:
- A high school diploma or less
- Middle skills, including some college courses, an associate’s degree or a certificate program
- A bachelor’s degree, including those with advanced degrees: master’s degrees, professional degrees and doctoral degrees
While good jobs are attainable in every pathway, they might vary considerably in scope depending on how much education one has obtained. For instance, less than 20% of good jobs will be available to those who complete either the middle-skills or high school pathway. Two-thirds of good jobs are expected to be obtainable for those on the bachelor’s degree track.
Regarding finances, some 80% of jobs on the bachelor’s degree pathway will meet the earnings threshold of a good job, compared to only half of jobs on the middle-skills pathway and just more than one-third of jobs on the high school pathway.
The STEM field has the greatest potential for offering good jobs in 2031. Nine out of 10 STEM jobs will be considered good jobs.
“We are going through a time of major economic change that carries both promise and uncertainty, including retirements of baby boomers, potential disruptions from generative AI, remaining inflationary pressures and high interest rates, geopolitical conflicts, and an unsettled national policy landscape,” the center’s director and the report’s lead author Jeff Strohl said in a public statement.
President Moves: Morehouse’s ‘record-breaking’ leader announces retirement
“The good news, though, is we foresee substantially more good jobs by 2031, spurred by greater productivity enabled by new technologies, stronger growth among high-skill/high-wage occupations, and continued political pressure on policymakers to deliver on job quality for workers, not just low unemployment.
More key findings
Additional data to consider as you guide students to their postsecondary aspirations:
- Managerial and professional office jobs will be the largest source of good jobs, accounting for nearly one-third of all good jobs. 84% of these jobs will be on the bachelor’s degree pathway.
- Other sources of good jobs on the bachelor’s track include these occupations groups: education, training and library; healthcare professional and technical; and computer and mathematical science.
- The middle-skills pathway will provide a range of good jobs, including many in blue-collar occupational groups like construction and extraction and production, healthcare professional and technical and protective services occupations.
- Ten out of 22 occupational groups can expect net declines in good jobs on the high school pathway, despite foreseeable growth in the number of good jobs for the same occupations on the bachelor’s and middle-skills pathways. We’ll see a decline in construction and extraction occupations of 421,000.
“While the value of college faces growing skepticism, our report affirms that the bachelor’s degree pathway will be the dominant route to a good job in 2031, with a majority of good jobs forecasted to lie on the bachelor’s degree pathway,” report co-author and Senior Writer and Editor Catherine Morris said in a public statement.
