Who is most at risk if international enrollment falls?

Colleges and universities with a higher dependency on international enrollment could take a sizable financial hit as global interest in U.S. higher education shifts under the Trump administration, according to a new report from Moody’s Ratings.

The global risk assessment firm reviewed its rated institutions and found that a 15% reduction in international enrollment could impact the earnings margins of 386 institutions. Non-selective colleges and universities that rely heavily on international enrollment and are already under financial stress could slide into “negative territory.”

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“While the full extent of the new regulations and restrictions remains unclear for fall 2025 and fall 2026, evolving visa policies and deportations are diminishing the perception of the U.S. as a prime destination for higher education,” the report read.

International enrollment has more than doubled in the last 25 years and now accounts for 6% of the total U.S. higher education population, according to the Institute of International Education. Moody’s found that foreign students make up two-thirds of today’s graduate programs, a 52% increase from a decade ago.

Without them, graduate programs would fall by more than 1.1 million students by 2037. This poses a significant threat to institutions’ budgets, considering international students pay higher tuition fees than domestic students, who also benefit from state and federal aid.

STEM fields are also at risk of strain: more than half of today’s graduates with doctorates working as engineers in computer or math fields are foreign-born, according to Moody’s. “The longer-term impact of reduced international researchers and entrepreneurs in STEM and other fields could impair the US economy and its scientific eminence.”

The Trump administration has revoked the visas or terminated the legal status of at least 900 students since the end of the spring semester, PBS News reports. It has also revoked Harvard University’s ability to enroll international students. A lawsuit levied by the Ivy League awaits deliberation in court.