U.S. colleges are facing a significant enrollment crisis driven by long-term declines and recent shocks. Undergraduate enrollment peaked around 2010 and has fallen nearly 15% since then, with public two-year colleges down 38%.
While 2025 enrollment has trended slightly upward, undergraduate enrollment remains below pre-pandemic levels.
Several structural factors underlie the crisis. The post-2008 birthrate decline means fewer college-age students, with an “enrollment cliff” expected starting in 2025 as high school graduate numbers drop by about 13% over the next decade.
A May 2022 National Center for Education Statistics survey found that students are struggling to resume traditional schedules and classroom structures. This, coupled with a strong labor market, is also luring young adults away from college.
Many employers now emphasize skills over degrees, reducing the perceived necessity of a college credential. Alternative pathways like bootcamps and certifications offer quicker, cheaper options.
Skepticism about college’s value is rising. Only 22% of Americans in a 2024 Pew survey said a four-year degree is worth it if loans are required.
Concerns about AI disrupting jobs further fuel doubts: 62% of the class of 2025 fear generative AI will affect their career prospects. Even logistical hurdles such as FAFSA delays have hurt access; a one-time glitch in 2024 led to a 5% drop in first-year enrollment and lower FAFSA completion among low-income students.
In this volatile environment, especially for community colleges and non-selective universities, traditional recruitment tactics are no longer sufficient. Leaders must reassess their value proposition and prepare for multiple futures, making scenario planning an increasingly vital strategy.
Scenario planning to tackle an enrollment crisis
In stable times, colleges could rely on simple forecasting—projecting enrollment by extending recent trends. But today’s environment is marked by uncertainty and rapid change, making traditional forecasting inadequate.
Scenario planning offers a better approach by developing multiple plausible futures based on key uncertainties, not a single prediction. As the Society for College and University Planning describes it, the process involves creating “well-crafted, contradictory narratives” to explore how external forces might shape outcomes.
Rather than projecting one path, leaders prepare for a range—from enrollment rebound to sharp decline, and plan accordingly.
Scenario planning is especially valuable now, in what many describe as a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous world. Originally used in military and global business settings, it helps institutions prepare for rapid change.
For colleges facing demographic shifts, technological disruption and changing student attitudes, it creates space to question assumptions and analyze labor trends, funding, public opinion and other external forces.
Scenario planning complements strategic planning, either by testing goals or stress-testing plans post-development. Ultimately, it builds resilience by preparing leaders to act on changes they’ve already imagined.
5-step scenario planning process
Scenario planning is a disciplined yet creative process that any institution can undertake. While methodologies vary, leaders can follow a clear five-step process to conduct scenario planning:
- Orient – Define the Focus: Start by clarifying the core issue and timeframe (e.g., “How will we sustain enrollment over the next five years?”). Identify assumptions in current plans and decide if scenarios will focus on total enrollment, specific groups or programs. A clear question and timeline anchor the process.
- Explore – Identify Drivers and Uncertainties: Research external trends (e.g., state funding, workforce needs, AI adoption) and distinguish between what’s likely and what’s unpredictable. Prioritize those with high impact and uncertainty. The goal is to define a few critical uncertainties—such as local economic shifts or public trust in higher ed—that will shape future outcomes.
- Synthesize – Build Scenarios: Cross two key uncertainties to create four distinct scenario narratives using a 2×2 matrix. Each scenario should be plausible, consistent, and thought-provoking. For example:
- Local Revival: The economy thrives, and adult learners return for retraining.
- Low Tide: High school grads skip college, and enrollment keeps falling.
- Disruptive Pivot: Tech advances and alternatives reduce degree demand.
- Enrollment Rebound: A recession and new aid policies fuel a surge.
- Choose and Act – Strategic Implications: Use the scenarios to stress-test existing plans. Identify strategies that work across scenarios (e.g., investing in online capacity) and prepare contingency actions (e.g., expansion plans or budget cuts). Assign team members to monitor early signs of scenario shifts and activate plans as needed.
- Monitor and Adapt – Make It Continuous: Track key indicators (like enrollment inquiries or local economic trends) to detect which scenario is unfolding. Review regularly and adjust strategies accordingly. Integrating this with strategic planning builds agility, allowing the college to act quickly as conditions evolve.
Scenario planning prepares institutions not to predict the future, but to respond to it. For today’s colleges, especially those facing steep enrollment risks, it supports resilience and proactive leadership.
Innovative strategies responding to enrollment decline
While planning for the future, many colleges are acting now to address enrollment challenges. These five institutions highlight distinct and replicable strategies:
Alamo Colleges District (San Antonio, Texas)
Alamo Colleges has built a robust K12 pipeline: over 13,500 high schoolers enroll in dual-credit courses annually, supported by AlamoPROMISE, a last-dollar scholarship making college tuition-free for local grads.
Its AlamoINSTITUTES pathways and Student Advocacy Centers (providing food, housing, and advising support) have shortened time-to-degree and doubled graduation rates. In 2018 and 2024, it won the Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award.
Why it’s innovative: Combines financial access, early college exposure, and holistic support to reduce barriers and accelerate completion.
Palm Beach State College (Florida)
The college places college advisors inside 17 local high schools, helping students navigate college and financial aid. This embedded model has increased dual-enrollment participation and the rate of students who continue at Palm Beach State post-graduation.
It also offers a free summer bridge for first-gen students and emphasizes early, hands-on guidance.
Why it’s innovative: Moves college advising into K12, improving transition and access for underrepresented students.
George Fox University (Newberg, Oregon)
This private Christian university grew enrollment by aligning with high-demand majors (such as nursing and engineering), expanding online adult degree programs, and investing in student life (housing, chapel, athletics). Its personalized marketing and “Be Known” mission helped it achieve record enrollment in 2025.
Why it’s innovative: Successfully blends values-based identity with market-responsive programming and adult learning.
Lebanon Valley College (Annville, Pennsylvania)
Lebanon Valley College added majors in clinical mental health counseling, marketing, and nursing; used personalized aid and recruitment to increase enrollment; and focused on retention strategies. In 2023, it welcomed its largest-ever incoming class and continued to break overall undergraduate enrollment records in 2024 and 2025.
Why it’s innovative: Shows how small liberal arts colleges can thrive by refreshing academic offerings and building early student engagement.
San Francisco State University (California)
To reverse a 25% enrollment drop, San Francisco State now guarantees admission to all qualified local high school grads and city college transfers. Its “You’re In!” campaign includes proactive follow-up: FAFSA help, translation services, and enrollment workshops. It’s also adding affordable student housing.
Why it’s innovative: Treats the city’s high schools and community college as an integrated pipeline and removes enrollment barriers.
Common threads in innovation
These institutions tackle enrollment challenges structurally, not just by ramping up recruiting. Key themes include:
- Strengthening the pipeline: Reaching into high schools with dual enrollment, embedded advisors and guaranteed admissions helps build early momentum toward college.
- Aligning with market needs: Adding in-demand programs such as nursing or tech draws students focused on clear career outcomes and job alignment.
- Holistic support and belonging: Aadvocacy centers, personalized advising and similar services foster student success and connection; this is particularly important for underrepresented students.
- Affordability and ROI: Free tuition, faster time-to-degree and clear job pathways help counter skepticism about value.
- Community partnerships: Collaborating with schools, employers and public agencies expands reach and taps new student populations.
These strategies show that innovation often emerges from necessity. While not every model fits everywhere, sharing these ideas can spark solutions. Institutions that support students, remain flexible and prepare for various scenarios will be better equipped to handle enrollment uncertainty.
It’s not just for institutions
You don’t have to wait for a campus-wide overhaul to respond to enrollment pressures. As a dean or department head, you can lead scenario conversations within your unit: ask, “What would we do if our enrollment dropped 30%? What if demand doubled?”
Engage your faculty in imagining plausible futures and testing your current strategies against them. Review your program offerings: Are they aligned with student interests and workforce demand?
Explore partnerships with local high schools or employers. Even modest actions such as embedding early advising touchpoints or offering credit-bearing short courses can make your department more resilient and relevant.
Scenario planning isn’t just for the president’s cabinet. Start small, think big, and help shape a more sustainable future for your students and institution.
