Democrats have a narrow path to winning Senate control in November. But victory might not derail the Trump administration’s push to give more educational authority to the states, dismantle the Department of Education, and remove transgender athletes from K12 sports, among other initiatives.
President Trump last week delivered his first midterm campaign speech of 2026 in Iowa, hoping to preserve his Republican majorities in Congress. His message to Iowans: let’s keep the ball rolling on his agenda.
“If we lose the midterms, you’ll lose so many of the things that we’re talking about,” he said during his speech. “So many of the assets that we’re talking about, so many of the tax cuts that we’re talking about. And it would lead to very bad things. We’ve got to win the midterms.”
It’s common for presidents to shed some of their Congressional majorities in midterm elections. Given the Republicans’ slim margins in the House and Senate, it would take much luck on both sides of the aisle to gain control.
Reports suggest looming challenges for Republicans. A new Emerson College Polling survey finds that just 43% of likely voters approve of the job President Trump is doing, while 51% disapprove of his first year back in office.
Looking ahead to the midterms, the same survey finds that 48% of voters support the Democratic candidate on the generic congressional ballot and 42% will vote for the Republican.
What does this mean for education?
Despite the outcome of the midterms, it doesn’t change the fact that we have an executive branch that seems comfortable “bending” laws to achieve political goals, argues Jon Valant, director of the Brown Center on Education Policy and senior research fellow at the Brookings Institution.
“The Trump administration has shown a willingness to push the limits of what it can do unilaterally, even if it gets resistance from congressional Republicans,” he says. “The June 2025 freeze of federal education formula funds was an example of that.”
The administration withheld those funds temporarily, even though they were congressionally appropriated, Valant adds. However, Democrats flipping Congress wouldn’t be nearly as significant for K12 education policy as winning back the White House in 2028.
Congress also hasn’t played a critical role in Trump’s executive actions on diversity, equity and inclusion in higher education. Thus, it is likely we’ll see continued pressure against colleges and universities.
However, there are individual races that could impact education policy, says Dale Chu, senior visiting fellow on education programs and policy at the Thomas B. Fordham Institute. U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy, who currently serves as chair of the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, will face off against the Trump-endorsed primary challenger, Congresswoman Julia Letlow, in Louisiana.
Cassidy is one of the three remaining Senate Republicans who voted to convict Trump after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.
Senator Bill Cassidy on empowering families through school choice.
Challenges to the Trump education agenda
Despite an unusually aggressive year of executive action toward education, there probably won’t be much of an education agenda for the next three years, Chu explains.
“Ask yourself: what does the President want Congress to do? Permanently abolishing the Department of Education was never realistic,” he says. “Divided government only reinforces that reality.”
The Trump administration will continue to seek influence over education through executive fiat and lawfare, Chu adds, whether through grant cancellations and delays, reinterpretation of statutory language, shifts in enforcement priorities, or the aggressive use of administrative discretion.
We’ll continue to hear discussions on school choice, as well as race and gender policies in schools, the latter of which has already felt the wrath of the Education Department less than one month into the new year.
In mid-January, the Department announced sweeping Title IX investigations into nearly 20 school districts and colleges for allegedly permitting transgender athletes to compete in girls’ and women’s sports.
A Democratic-led Congress, if anything, would hold oversight hearings to raise awareness of some of the controversial executive actions, says Valant.
“Unfortunately, if the administration wants to continue its anti-DEI, ‘anti-woke’ push through its selective enforcement of civil rights law, I’m not confident that Congress would stop them, no matter who has control,” he explains.
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