For generations, the college campus playbook was simple: grow enrollment, expand programs and build more space. Today, many institutions are facing a very different reality.
The question is no longer how to grow. It is how to adapt.
Beginning in fall 2026, colleges and universities will begin confronting the long-anticipated demographic cliff. The “cliff” was first projected by Nathan Grawe and refers to a prolonged decline in the number of traditional college-age students.
Historically low birth rates, changing perceptions of the value of higher education, fewer international students and persistent affordability concerns are expected to intensify enrollment pressures for many institutions.
While the challenge itself is not new, the sector is now entering the period when its effects will become increasingly visible. How institutions respond will vary, but one thing is becoming clear: navigating the demographic cliff will require the courage to make difficult decisions about growth, facilities and institutional priorities.
Away from college campus expansion
That courage is already beginning to show in how colleges and universities approach their campuses. Across higher education, the expansion of physical space has slowed considerably.
According to Gordian’s 13th State of Facilities in Higher Education report, colleges and universities have effectively halted net new campus growth over the past five years, marking a major departure from decades of expansion. Financial pressures following the pandemic, uncertainty in public funding and enrollment declines have led many institutions to focus on maximizing existing assets rather than building new facilities.
Leaders must be willing to acknowledge changing realities and align their campuses with future demand. Sometimes that alignment can include facing the debt of deferred maintenance.
Since the Great Recession of 2008-09, many institutions have consistently underinvested in the maintenance and renewal of existing facilities. Although stewardship spending improved in 2025, institutions still fell 27% short of needed investment levels.
As a result, deferred maintenance needs have grown to nearly $160 per gross square foot—roughly double the level reported in 2007. For many campuses, redirecting funds from expansion to facility stewardship has become a necessary risk-management strategy.
The combination of enrollment uncertainty, financial constraints, online learning and deferred maintenance has created a new reality for higher education. Some institutions already have more space than they need. Others may soon face the same challenge.
The courageous response is not to postpone difficult decisions, but to proactively evaluate how campus space supports institutional goals and future enrollment projections.
Many institutions have already begun this work. Schools across the Northeast and Upper Midwest have been managing enrollment declines for years as demographic shifts reduced the number of prospective students. Nearly 90 private colleges have closed or merged since 2020.
Public university systems in states such as Maine, Vermont and Pennsylvania are also taking action. They are consolidating campuses and facilities to concentrate resources on essential programs and better serve future student populations.
In Michigan, some regional public universities have experienced enrollment declines of up to 50% over the past decade. Many are now planning for smaller student populations and significantly reduced campus footprints.
Not every institution will be affected equally. Nathan Grawe’s projections suggest that the nation’s most selective colleges and universities will likely continue to attract strong enrollment. However, many institutions will need to make difficult decisions about space utilization, academic offerings and resource allocation.
Thoughtful change is necessary
Successfully navigating the demographic cliff will require a clear, data-driven strategy. University leaders should focus on:
- Developing realistic enrollment projections based on regional demographic trends.
- Aligning academic programs with student demand and workforce needs.
- Assessing campus facilities, space utilization and building conditions.
- Prioritizing investments that support institutional goals and financial sustainability.
- Engaging legislators, donors and other stakeholders who can help fund transformation efforts.
- Building campuswide alignment around future priorities and necessary changes.
Perhaps most importantly, institutions will need the courage to act. Reducing, repurposing or consolidating campus space can be difficult, especially for communities with deep connections to longstanding facilities and traditions.
Yet thoughtful change is often necessary to preserve long-term institutional strength. Leaders who are willing to make strategic decisions today will be better positioned to serve students and sustain their institutions for decades to come.
The image above was created with AI.
