In 2025, high school graduation numbers will peak before entering a period of prolonged decline, exacerbating pressures higher ed institutions are experiencing as they brace for the proverbial enrollment “cliff.”
Nearly four million high school students will walk the graduation stage next year, the Western Interstate for Higher Education (WICHE) projects in the 11th installment of Knocking at the College Door, a comprehensive report that tracks graduation numbers in every state. From that point up until 2041 (the final year of WICHE’s projection period), the number of graduates will steadily decline to 3.4 million graduates, a 13% drop.
“The news for colleges and the workforce is cause for concern,” said WICHE President Demarée Michelau in a public statement. “Yet even then for the more populated states that will bear most of the decline, the bottom will not fall out overnight.”
Michelau notes that higher ed institutions have time to adjust to meet current and future workforce needs.
“There are plenty of potential students out there, including recent high school graduates who historically haven’t been well-served by our educational systems, those who may be leaving college short of a degree, and adult learners,” adds Michelau.
The research suggests the decline in graduation numbers is caused primarily by a decrease in U.S. birth rates, as well as two other factors:
- The COVID-19 pandemic reduced a significant number of K12 students who left education altogether
- Nationwide, high school graduation rates have plateaued
More from UB: Here’s how changes in the edtech world affect higher ed
One of the biggest takeaways is the regional variation in graduation numbers. Simply put, some states will be impacted more than others.
Most states (38) will see declines in graduation rates through 2041. Among them, eight will see declines of more than 20% and five of the nation’s largest states by population—California (-29%), Illinois (-32%), Michigan (-20%), New York (-27%) and Pennsylvania (-17%)—will account for 75% of the decline in high school graduates.
Meanwhile, nine of the South’s 17 states will either see gains or no change in graduation numbers. In Washington D.C. (+31%) and states such as Tennessee (+15%), South Carolina (+14%) and Florida (+12%), growth will be significant.
“The next few years represent an opportunity for states, business leaders, and higher education to work together to develop stronger connections to K12 schools, better incentives and financial and academic supports for postsecondary learning and more powerful pathways to and from work and learning,” WICHE Vice President for policy analysis and research and lead author of the report Patrick Lane said in a statement.
View the full report here to read the researchers’ recommendations on how to best prepare for this potential enrollment cliff, including advice on investing in college affordability, enhancing high school advising and more.
